Maurice Dufrasnestadion · Referee J. Vergoote · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Standard Liege vs Cercle Brugge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.23 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Standard Liege the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Standard Liege win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Standard Liege home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cercle Brugge away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Standard Liege to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for Standard Liege and 1.23 for Cercle Brugge, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Standard Liege
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs KVC Westerlo · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Antwerp · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 2-0 (W)
Cercle Brugge
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Gent · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge KV · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Standard Liege win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.