Maurice Dufrasnestadion · Analysis updated 01:03 UTC
Standard Liege vs Club Brugge KV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.78 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Club Brugge KV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Club Brugge KV win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Standard Liege home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Brugge KV away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Standard Liege
- 2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Dender · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charleroi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs KVC Westerlo · 2-4 (L)
Club Brugge KV
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Truiden · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lokeren-Temse · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs RAAL La Louvière · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-08T17:30:00.000Z · Standard Liege 0-3 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · Standard Liege 1-2 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-02-23T12:30:00.000Z · Standard Liege 2-1 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-08-04T16:30:00.000Z · Standard Liege 1-0 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-12-03T17:30:00.000Z · Standard Liege 0-2 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · Standard Liege 2-1 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-03-12T12:30:00.000Z · Standard Liege 0-2 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · Standard Liege 3-0 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-01-23T12:30:00.000Z · Standard Liege 2-2 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2021-11-07T12:30:00.000Z · Standard Liege 2-2 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 3 | Union St. Gilloise | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 4 | Charleroi | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 6 | Genk | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | KVC Westerlo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Lommel United | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Zulte Waregem | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Antwerp | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | SK Beveren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | St. Truiden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | OH Leuven | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club Brugge KV win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.