Standard Liege vs Seraing United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.53 for Seraing United, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Standard Liege the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Standard Liege win

75.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 0.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Standard Liege home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Seraing United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Standard Liege win76%

Draw17%

Seraing United win8%

Double chance 1X

93%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

2–015.9%
1–014.6%
3–011.5%
2–18.3%
1–17.7%

Recent form

Standard Liege

2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Dender · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charleroi · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs KVC Westerlo · 2-4 (L)

Seraing United

2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KAA Gent II · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Knokke · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Hasselt · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dender · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-26T09:00:00.000Z · Standard Liege 2-1 Seraing United (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-01-14T15:00:00.000Z · Standard Liege 1-1 Seraing United (Jupiler Pro League)
2022-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · Standard Liege 0-2 Seraing United (Jupiler Pro League)
2022-03-13T20:00:00.000Z · Standard Liege 0-1 Seraing United (Jupiler Pro League)
2021-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · Standard Liege 1-0 Seraing United (Jupiler Pro League)
2021-02-03T18:00:00.000Z · Standard Liege 4-1 Seraing United (Cup)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Standard Liege win, at 75.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.