· Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
Stanway Rovers vs Needham Market Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Stanway Rovers and 1.91 for Needham Market, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Needham Market the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Needham Market win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stanway Rovers home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Needham Market away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Needham Market to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Stanway Rovers and 1.91 for Needham Market, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Stanway Rovers
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Faversham Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-0 (D)
Needham Market
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wingate & Finchley · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leamington · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bury Town · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Anstey Nomads · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Needham Market win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.