· Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
Staphorst vs DVS 33 Ermelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Staphorst and 2.15 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives DVS 33 Ermelo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
DVS 33 Ermelo win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Staphorst home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
DVS 33 Ermelo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates DVS 33 Ermelo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 33% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Staphorst and 2.15 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–35.7%
Recent form
Staphorst
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hollandia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TEC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Nijkerk · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Genemuiden · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ACV · 2-3 (L)
DVS 33 Ermelo
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportlust '46 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hollandia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TEC · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Nijkerk · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 1 | Rijnvogels | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | ACV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Noordwijk | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | VV Scherpenzeel | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Lisse | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | SC Genemuiden | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Excelsior Maassluis | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Harkemase Boys | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | TEC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | GOES | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Dongen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Sparta Nijkerk | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | Zwaluwen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | Purmersteijn | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Gemert | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Hoogeveen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Blauw Geel | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Roosendaal | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Hercules | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 12 | Poortugaal | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | UNA | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Dovo | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
| 14 | TOGB | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Eemdijk | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -17 | 3 |
| 15 | Vvsb | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Staphorst | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Groene Ster | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
| 18 | SVZW | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -17 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is DVS 33 Ermelo win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.