Sportpark Het Noorderslag · Analysis updated 15:52 UTC
Staphorst vs Hsc 21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Staphorst and 1.56 for Hsc 21, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Staphorst the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Staphorst win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Staphorst home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hsc 21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Staphorst to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Staphorst and 1.56 for Hsc 21, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.2%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–25.7%
Recent form
Staphorst
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hercules · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hollandia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TEC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Nijkerk · 2-3 (L)
Hsc 21
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs VV Scherpenzeel · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs URK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Staphorst · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TEC · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Harkemase Boys · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harkemase Boys | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | ACV | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | VV Scherpenzeel | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 24 |
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 4 | TEC | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 4 | Rijnvogels | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 5 | Excelsior '31 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | SC Genemuiden | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Zwaluwen | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Poortugaal | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Purmersteijn | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Dongen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Sparta Nijkerk | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Gemert | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | ADO '20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | GOES | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Hoogeveen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Blauw Geel | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Hercules | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 12 | TOGB | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Eemdijk | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 10 |
| 13 | UNA | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Roosendaal | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Staphorst | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Groene Ster | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 16 | Dovo | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Vvsb | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 5 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 | SVZW | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Staphorst win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.