· Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
Staphorst vs SC Genemuiden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Staphorst and 3.25 for SC Genemuiden, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives SC Genemuiden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SC Genemuiden win
77.3% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 3.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Staphorst home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SC Genemuiden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Genemuiden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 10% / 13% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Staphorst and 3.25 for SC Genemuiden, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–38.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–36.9%
- 1–46.5%
- 0–26.3%
Recent form
Staphorst
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hollandia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TEC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Nijkerk · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Genemuiden · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ACV · 2-3 (L)
SC Genemuiden
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoogeveen · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Purmersteijn · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Staphorst · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs VV Scherpenzeel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SVZW · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACV | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | VV Scherpenzeel | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Harkemase Boys | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 4 | Excelsior '31 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 22 |
| 4 | Rijnvogels | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 6 | TEC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Dongen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Zwaluwen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 8 | Purmersteijn | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Poortugaal | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Sparta Nijkerk | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | GOES | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 10 | Hoogeveen | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gemert | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Blauw Geel | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Hercules | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Roosendaal | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Staphorst | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | TOGB | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 14 | Eemdijk | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 15 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | UNA | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Dovo | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Vvsb | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 | SVZW | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Genemuiden win, at 77.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.