· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Star Starachowice vs Czarni Połaniec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Star Starachowice and 1.45 for Czarni Połaniec, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Czarni Połaniec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Star Starachowice home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Czarni Połaniec away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Czarni Połaniec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Star Starachowice and 1.45 for Czarni Połaniec, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Star Starachowice
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisłoka Dębica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kolb. · 0-0 (D)
Czarni Połaniec
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Star Starachowice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 30 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Naprzód | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Wisłoka Dębica | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 7 | Jarosław | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Busko-Zdroj | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 13 | Sokół Kolb. | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.