· Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
Stará Ľubovňa vs Poprad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Stará Ľubovňa and 1.83 for Poprad, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Poprad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Poprad win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stará Ľubovňa home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Poprad away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Poprad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 33% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Stará Ľubovňa and 1.83 for Poprad, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Stará Ľubovňa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Snina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Medzev · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Raslavice · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Poprad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lipany · 3-0 (W)
Poprad
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs MSK Tesla Stropkov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spišská Nová Ves · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stará Ľubovňa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Slávia TU Košice · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Spartak Medzev | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Raslavice | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Stará Ľubovňa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Lipany | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Poprad | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Partizán Bardejov | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Spišská Nová Ves | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Slávia TU Košice | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Snina | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 10 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -21 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Poprad win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.