· Analysis updated 13:06 UTC
Ştefăneşti vs Chindia Targoviste Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Ştefăneşti and 2.75 for Chindia Targoviste, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Chindia Targoviste the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Chindia Targoviste win
76.3% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ştefăneşti home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chindia Targoviste away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chindia Targoviste to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 9% / 14% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Ştefăneşti and 2.75 for Chindia Targoviste, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.0%
- 0–39.2%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Ştefăneşti
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metaloglobus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Bihor Oradea · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetatea Suceava · 3-1 (W)
Chindia Targoviste
- 2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Dinamo București · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Afumati · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Flacăra Moreni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Metaloglobus · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Slatina | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Popești-Leordeni | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Chindia Targoviste | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Cetatea Suceava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 6 | Metalul Buzău | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | CSM Reşiţa | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Concordia | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 9 | FC Bacau | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| 10 | Bihor Oradea | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 11 | Gloria Bistriţa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | CS Afumati | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | ASA Targu Mures | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Unirea Slobozia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | CS Dinamo București | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 7 |
| 19 | CSM Satu Mare | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 20 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 6 |
| 21 | Ştefăneşti | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -19 | 6 |
| 22 | Dumbrăviţa | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chindia Targoviste win, at 76.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.