Ştefăneşti vs Dumbrăviţa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ştefăneşti and 1.17 for Dumbrăviţa, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Ştefăneşti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ştefăneşti home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dumbrăviţa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ştefăneşti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Ştefăneşti and 1.17 for Dumbrăviţa, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Ştefăneşti win40%

Draw27%

Dumbrăviţa win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.0%
0–19.9%
0–08.4%
2–18.4%

Recent form

Ştefăneşti

2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metaloglobus · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Bihor Oradea · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetatea Suceava · 3-1 (W)

Dumbrăviţa

2026-10-24T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Bihor Oradea · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Cetatea Suceava · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CSM Reşiţa · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · Ştefăneşti 1-0 Dumbrăviţa (Liga II)

Liga II table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Politehnica Timisoara	11	8	3	0	13	27
2	Slatina	11	8	1	2	9	25
3	Chindia Targoviste	11	8	0	3	13	24
4	Popești-Leordeni	11	7	3	1	11	24
5	Cetatea Suceava	11	6	3	2	10	21
6	Metalul Buzău	11	6	3	2	6	21
7	CSM Reşiţa	11	7	0	4	3	21
8	Concordia	11	6	1	4	8	19
9	FC Bacau	11	5	3	3	12	18
10	Bihor Oradea	11	5	3	3	8	18
11	Gloria Bistriţa	11	6	0	5	1	18
12	CS Afumati	11	5	2	4	0	17
13	Metaloglobus	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Viitorul Şelimbăr	11	2	3	6	-12	9
18	Unirea Slobozia	11	2	2	7	-1	8
19	CS Dinamo București	11	2	1	8	-16	7
20	CSM Satu Mare	11	0	6	5	-8	6
21	Ştefăneşti	11	2	0	9	-19	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	11	0	3	8	-16	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.