· Analysis updated 23:28 UTC
Stella vs Stade d'Abidjan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Stella and 0.93 for Stade d'Abidjan, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Stade d'Abidjan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.6% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stella home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stade d'Abidjan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade d'Abidjan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 31% / 33% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Stella and 0.93 for Stade d'Abidjan, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.9%
- 0–115.7%
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Stella
- 2026-05-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing d'Abidjan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bouaké · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade d'Abidjan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SOA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zoman · 1-0 (W)
Stade d'Abidjan
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zoman · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SOL · 6-5 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Agboville · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mouna · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Zoman · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ES Agboville | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Stade d'Abidjan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Yamoussoukro | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | SOA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | SOL | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Zoman | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Mouna | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | San-Pédro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | ISCA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Adiake | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 11 | US Tchologo | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Bouaké | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Korhogo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | AFAD | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Stella | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | ASEC Mimosas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.