Danie Craven Stadium · Referee M. Lekwape · Analysis updated 12:54 UTC
Stellenbosch vs Marumo Gallants Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Stellenbosch and 0.77 for Marumo Gallants, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Stellenbosch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stellenbosch win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stellenbosch home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Marumo Gallants away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stellenbosch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Stellenbosch and 0.77 for Marumo Gallants, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Stellenbosch
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kruger United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sekhukhune United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Golden Arrows · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Marumo Gallants · 3-1 (W)
Marumo Gallants
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sekhukhune United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pirates · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amazulu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Polokwane City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TS Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Milford FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Chippa United | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Durban City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kruger United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | TS Galaxy | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Siwelele | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stellenbosch win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.