Ochilview Park · Referee C. Scott · Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
Stenhousemuir vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Stenhousemuir and 3.30 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined total of 5.07. That distribution gives Heart Of Midlothian the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heart Of Midlothian win
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 3.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stenhousemuir home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heart Of Midlothian away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heart Of Midlothian to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 18% / 15% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Stenhousemuir and 3.30 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined 5.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.6%
- 1–26.0%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–45.5%
- 2–25.4%
Recent form
Stenhousemuir
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 1-0 (W)
Heart Of Midlothian
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Falkirk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · Stenhousemuir 0-3 Heart Of Midlothian (League Cup)
- 2019-07-24T18:45:00.000Z · Stenhousemuir 1-2 Heart Of Midlothian (League Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heart Of Midlothian win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.