Ochilview Park · Referee C. Steven · Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Stenhousemuir vs Motherwell Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Stenhousemuir and 0.91 for Motherwell, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Stenhousemuir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stenhousemuir win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stenhousemuir home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Motherwell away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stenhousemuir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Stenhousemuir and 0.91 for Motherwell, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.6%
- 2–010.8%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.7%
Recent form
Stenhousemuir
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 1-0 (W)
Motherwell
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stenhousemuir win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.