· Analysis updated 04:58 UTC
Sterkrade-Nord vs Scherpenberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sterkrade-Nord and 1.49 for Scherpenberg, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Sterkrade-Nord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sterkrade-Nord win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sterkrade-Nord home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Scherpenberg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sterkrade-Nord to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Sterkrade-Nord and 1.49 for Scherpenberg, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
Sterkrade-Nord
- 2023-07-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Homberg · 1-1 (D)
- 2022-06-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Nettetal · 3-2 (W)
- 2022-06-06T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Hiesfeld · 3-4 (L)
- 2022-05-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Duisburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2022-05-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf · 0-4 (L)
Scherpenberg
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Germania Ratingen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monheim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Solingen-Wald · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs KFC Uerdingen 05 · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2020-07-21T17:30:00.000Z · Sterkrade-Nord 2-2 Scherpenberg (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sterkrade-Nord win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.