· Analysis updated 09:51 UTC
Šternberk vs Hluk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Šternberk and 1.79 for Hluk, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Šternberk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Šternberk home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hluk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Šternberk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Šternberk and 1.79 for Hluk, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
Šternberk
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Všechovice · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavičín · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nové Sady · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Lanžhot · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kozlovice · 0-1 (L)
Hluk
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Sokol Lanžhot · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kozlovice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Krumvir · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Břeclav · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Holešov · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Všechovice | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 30 |
| 2 | Strání | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 25 |
| 3 | Kozlovice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | SK Krumvir | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Sokol Lanžhot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Slavičín | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Prostejov B | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Šternberk | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Hluk | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Břeclav | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Holešov | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Bzenec | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Brumov | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -19 | 7 |
| 14 | Nové Sady | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -23 | 7 |
| 15 | Kroměříž II | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | Baťov | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -33 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.