· Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Šternberk vs Kroměříž II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Šternberk and 1.58 for Kroměříž II, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Šternberk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Šternberk win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Šternberk home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kroměříž II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Šternberk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Šternberk and 1.58 for Kroměříž II, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.9%
Recent form
Šternberk
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Všechovice · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavičín · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nové Sady · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Lanžhot · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kozlovice · 0-1 (L)
Kroměříž II
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Šternberk · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Strání · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bzenec · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Všechovice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Slavičín · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · Šternberk 5-2 Kroměříž II (4. liga - Divizie E)
- 2025-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · Šternberk 1-2 Kroměříž II (4. liga - Divizie E)
4. liga - Divizie E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Všechovice | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 30 |
| 2 | Strání | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 25 |
| 3 | Kozlovice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | SK Krumvir | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Sokol Lanžhot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Slavičín | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Prostejov B | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Šternberk | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Hluk | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Břeclav | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Holešov | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Bzenec | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Brumov | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -19 | 7 |
| 14 | Nové Sady | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -23 | 7 |
| 15 | Kroměříž II | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | Baťov | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -33 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Šternberk win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.