Forthbank Stadium · Analysis updated 13:05 UTC
Stirling Albion vs Kelty Hearts Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Stirling Albion and 1.53 for Kelty Hearts, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Stirling Albion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stirling Albion home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kelty Hearts away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stirling Albion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Stirling Albion and 1.53 for Kelty Hearts, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Stirling Albion
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fraserburgh · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cumbernauld Colts · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Edinburgh City · 3-7 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rangers U21 · 3-2 (W)
Kelty Hearts
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montrose · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Edinburgh City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Clyde · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Clyde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Spartans | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 7 | Forfar Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Annan Athletic | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Stirling Albion | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.