Macedonia park · Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Stirling Lions vs Sorrento Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Stirling Lions and 1.02 for Sorrento, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Stirling Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stirling Lions win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stirling Lions home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sorrento away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stirling Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for Stirling Lions and 1.02 for Sorrento, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–09.2%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Stirling Lions
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Knights · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayswater City · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Dianella White Eagle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Armadale · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Balcatta · 0-2 (L)
Sorrento
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Kingsway · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayswater City · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Perth RedStar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Fremantle City · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Western Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -16 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stirling Lions win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.