· Analysis updated 15:49 UTC
Stjørdals-Blink vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Stjørdals-Blink and 1.56 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Fredrikstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stjørdals-Blink home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fredrikstad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fredrikstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 35% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Stjørdals-Blink and 1.56 for Fredrikstad, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Stjørdals-Blink
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ull/Kisa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lørenskog · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fredrikstad · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kjelsås · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eidsvold · 1-3 (L)
Fredrikstad
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjørdals-Blink · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eidsvold IF · 7-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.