Stjarnan vs Ilves Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Stjarnan and 1.33 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Ilves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Stjarnan win35%

Draw27%

Ilves win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.6%
0–110.1%
1–09.4%
1–28.4%
2–17.9%

Why the model likes this

Stjarnan home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ilves away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ilves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 27% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Stjarnan and 1.33 for Ilves, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Stjarnan

2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Keflavik · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-03T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Valur Reykjavik · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-26T19:15:00.000Z · A vs IA Akranes · 1-5 (L)
2026-07-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves · 1-0 (W)

Ilves

2026-08-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mariehamn · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stjarnan · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.