· Referee I. O. Kristjansson · Analysis updated 09:57 UTC
Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Stjarnan and 1.24 for Thor Akureyri, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Stjarnan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stjarnan win
64.1% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stjarnan home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thor Akureyri away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stjarnan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 18% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Stjarnan and 1.24 for Thor Akureyri, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–07.5%
- 3–06.2%
Recent form
Stjarnan
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KA Akureyri · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FH hafnarfjordur · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Breidablik · 2-0 (W)
Thor Akureyri
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stjarnan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs KA Akureyri · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Valur Reykjavik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FH hafnarfjordur · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 46 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -12 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stjarnan win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.