Edgeley Park · Analysis updated 06:56 UTC
Stockport County U21 vs Burnley U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Stockport County U21 and 1.47 for Burnley U21, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Stockport County U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stockport County U21 win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burnley U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stockport County U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Stockport County U21 and 1.47 for Burnley U21, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 67%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Stockport County U21
Burnley U21
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fulham U21 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Bromwich Albion U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stockport County U21 win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.