· Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Stockport County U21 vs Stoke City U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Stockport County U21 and 0.97 for Stoke City U21, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Stockport County U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stockport County U21 win
66.4% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stoke City U21 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stockport County U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Stockport County U21 and 0.97 for Stoke City U21, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 56%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Stockport County U21
Stoke City U21
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wealdstone · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County U21 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol City U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Cardiff City U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Wolves U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Southampton U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Hull City U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Swansea City U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Brentford U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Brighton U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Peterborough United U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Stockport County U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Sheffield United U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Bromley U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Birmingham City U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Leicester City U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Ipswich Town U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Preston North End U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 22 | Coventry City U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 25 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 26 | Leeds United U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | West Ham United U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 29 | Stoke City U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 30 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Millwall U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Wycombe U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Plymouth U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Derby County U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Reading U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Luton Town U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 37 | Gillingham FC U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stockport County U21 win, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.