Edgeley Park · Referee T. Kirk · Analysis updated 04:37 UTC
Stockport County vs Leicester Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.00 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Stockport County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stockport County win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stockport County home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Leicester away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stockport County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Stockport County and 1.00 for Leicester, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.6%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.2%
Recent form
Stockport County
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Notts County · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Doncaster · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bromley · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Barnsley · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 2-0 (W)
Leicester
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Luton · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bromley · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Doncaster · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stevenage · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Bradford | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Plymouth | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 22 | Bromley | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -16 | 9 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 24 | Wigan | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stockport County win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.