Edgeley Park · Referee R. Martin · Analysis updated 08:29 UTC
Stockport County vs Peterborough Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.88 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Stockport County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stockport County win
68.7% probability
Expected goals
2.27 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stockport County home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stockport County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 18% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.27 goals for Stockport County and 0.88 for Peterborough, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–08.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 47.6% vs market 40.3%, edge +7.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.3% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +7.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.10 | 30.5% | 31.3% | 3.19 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 7.00 | 13.0% | 13.1% | 7.63 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.33 | 68.7% | 68.7% | 1.46 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.3% | 18.2% | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 82.1% | 81.8% | 1.22 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 87.4% | 86.9% | 1.15 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 52.4% | 1.91 | -7.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Stockport County
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bromley · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Barnsley · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday · 0-0 (D)
Peterborough
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Stockport County 1-0 Peterborough (League One)
- 2026-04-25T11:30:00.000Z · Stockport County 3-1 Peterborough (League One)
- 2025-11-20T20:00:00.000Z · Stockport County 0-3 Peterborough (League One)
- 2025-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Stockport County 1-1 Peterborough (League One)
- 2024-12-20T19:45:00.000Z · Stockport County 2-1 Peterborough (League One)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Bradford | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Plymouth | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 22 | Bromley | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -16 | 9 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 24 | Wigan | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stockport County win, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.