Edgeley Park · Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Stockport County vs Reading Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.42 for Reading, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Stockport County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stockport County win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stockport County home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Reading away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stockport County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Stockport County and 1.42 for Reading, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–27.0%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Stockport County
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bromley · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Barnsley · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday · 0-0 (D)
Reading
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Milton Keynes Dons · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bradford · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wycombe · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockport County | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Bradford | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Cambridge United | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | Sheffield Wednesday | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Reading | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 10 | Leicester | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Leyton Orient | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 13 | Luton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Burton Albion | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Blackpool | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | Notts County | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 19 | Doncaster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 20 | Milton Keynes Dons | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 22 | Barnsley | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 23 | Bromley | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 8 |
| 24 | Wigan | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stockport County win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.