· Analysis updated 00:12 UTC
Stocksbridge Park Steels vs Runcorn Linnets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Stocksbridge Park Steels and 1.45 for Runcorn Linnets, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Runcorn Linnets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stocksbridge Park Steels home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Runcorn Linnets away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Runcorn Linnets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Stocksbridge Park Steels and 1.45 for Runcorn Linnets, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–08.1%
Recent form
Stocksbridge Park Steels
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redcar Athletic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Runcorn Linnets · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-17T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Guiseley AFC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilkeston Town · 0-0 (D)
Runcorn Linnets
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallam · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stocksbridge Park Steels · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Leek Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashton United · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs United of Manchester · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Stocksbridge Park Steels 1-2 Runcorn Linnets (FA Trophy)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.