· Analysis updated 07:53 UTC
Stockton Town vs Curzon Ashton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Stockton Town and 1.82 for Curzon Ashton, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Curzon Ashton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Curzon Ashton win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stockton Town home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Curzon Ashton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 26% / 23% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Stockton Town and 1.82 for Curzon Ashton, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Stockton Town
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Emley · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs United of Manchester · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bury · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hyde United · 1-2 (L)
Curzon Ashton
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Whitby Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rylands · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hyde United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Redcar Athletic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stalybridge Celtic · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 6 | Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 8 | Warrington Town | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 10 | Alfreton Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 20 |
| 11 | Lancaster City | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby Town | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 19 |
| 14 | AFC Emley | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 | Hyde United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 15 |
| 16 | Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 17 | Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 20 | United of Manchester | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 21 | Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Curzon Ashton win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.