Bet365 Stadium · Referee J. Richardson · Analysis updated 07:59 UTC
Stoke City U21 vs Brentford U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Stoke City U21 and 1.80 for Brentford U21, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Stoke City U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.9% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stoke City U21 home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Brentford U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stoke City U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Stoke City U21 and 1.80 for Brentford U21, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.2%
- 0–14.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.85 | 50.0% | 51.5% | 1.94 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.55 | 60.2% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.2% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.35 | 38.6% | 39.0% | 2.56 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.35 | 38.6% | 39.0% | 2.56 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.10 | 30.0% | 30.3% | 3.30 | +0.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 3.00 | 30.2% | 30.3% | 3.30 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.30 | 69.8% | 69.7% | 1.43 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.33 | 70.0% | 69.7% | 1.43 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.7% | 21.9% | 4.57 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.85 | 50.0% | 48.5% | 2.06 | -1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 79.7% | 78.0% | 1.28 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Stoke City U21
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Halifax Town · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Charlton Athletic U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves U21 · 4-0 (W)
Brentford U21
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wycombe U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton U21 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby County U21 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League 2 Division One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sunderland U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Fulham U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Norwich City U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Manchester United U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 11 | Everton U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Derby County U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Reading U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Leeds United U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 17 | Brentford U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 18 | Brighton U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | West Ham United U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 20 | Stoke City U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 21 | Arsenal U21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley U21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 26 | Wolves U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 | Birmingham City U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 29 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 30 | Leicester City U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
| 31 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.