Bet365 Stadium · Analysis updated 21:34 UTC
Stoke City U21 vs Leeds United U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Stoke City U21 and 1.45 for Leeds United U21, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Leeds United U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stoke City U21 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leeds United U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.4%
- 0–27.4%
Recent form
Stoke City U21
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City U21 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordsjælland U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Halifax Town · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Charlton Athletic U21 · 2-2 (D)
Leeds United U21
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnsley · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Middlesbrough U21 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Solihull Moors · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic U21 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Stoke City U21 0-0 Leeds United U21 (Premier League Cup)
- 2026-01-16T13:00:00.000Z · Stoke City U21 1-0 Leeds United U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2024-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · Stoke City U21 1-1 Leeds United U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2023-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · Stoke City U21 1-2 Leeds United U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2023-04-17T18:00:00.000Z · Stoke City U21 1-1 Leeds United U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2022-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · Stoke City U21 0-4 Leeds United U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.