Stoke City vs Blackburn Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.03 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Stoke City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Stoke City win

53.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stoke City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stoke City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Stoke City and 1.03 for Blackburn, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Stoke City win54%

Draw24%

Blackburn win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–011.0%
2–19.7%
2–09.5%
0–16.6%

Recent form

Stoke City

2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-1 (D)

Blackburn

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	6	21
3	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	6	17
4	West Brom	10	5	2	3	2	17
5	West Ham	9	4	4	1	11	16
6	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	1	16
7	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	2	15
8	QPR	9	3	5	1	3	14
9	Wolves	9	4	2	3	2	14
10	Millwall	10	4	2	4	0	14
11	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Charlton	10	3	5	2	-3	14
13	Southampton	9	5	2	2	10	13
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	1	12
16	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-4	11
17	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	-4	11
18	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	1	10
19	Norwich	9	3	0	6	-2	9
20	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stoke City win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.