Stoke City vs Derby Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Stoke City and 0.80 for Derby, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Stoke City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Stoke City win

59.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stoke City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Derby away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Stoke City win59%

Draw24%

Derby win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.8%
2–011.9%
1–111.0%
2–19.5%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Stoke City

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 2-1 (W)

Derby

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-2 Derby (Championship)
2025-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 3-1 Derby (Championship)
2025-05-03T11:30:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-0 Derby (Championship)
2024-11-02T12:30:00.000Z · Stoke City 2-1 Derby (Championship)
2023-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-3 Derby (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · Stoke City 1-2 Derby (Championship)
2021-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 1-2 Derby (Championship)
2021-03-20T15:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 1-0 Derby (Championship)
2020-12-12T15:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-0 Derby (Championship)
2020-01-31T19:45:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-4 Derby (Championship)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	18	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	6	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	9	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Stoke City	11	6	1	4	2	19
7	Southampton	11	6	3	2	11	17
8	Wolves	10	5	2	3	3	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	3	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	4	3	4	1	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	0	15
13	Portsmouth	10	4	2	4	0	14
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	-1	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	-3	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	-3	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	-5	14
18	Lincoln	11	3	3	5	-10	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	1	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	-9	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	-4	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	-5	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	-11	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	-15	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stoke City win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.