bet365 Stadium · Referee Oliver Langford, England · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Stoke City vs Swansea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.34 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Swansea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stoke City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Swansea away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–08.1%
Recent form
Stoke City
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 2-1 (W)
Swansea
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 1-2 Swansea (Championship)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-2 Swansea (Championship)
- 2025-12-13T12:30:00.000Z · Stoke City 2-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2025-02-15T15:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 3-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2024-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-0 Swansea (Championship)
- 2024-04-10T19:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-3 Swansea (Championship)
- 2023-12-12T19:45:00.000Z · Stoke City 1-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2023-02-21T19:45:00.000Z · Stoke City 3-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2022-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · Stoke City 1-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2022-02-08T19:45:00.000Z · Stoke City 3-0 Swansea (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Wolves | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 14 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 9 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.