· Analysis updated 14:38 UTC
Stord vs Djerv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Stord and 3.03 for Djerv, a combined total of 4.70. That distribution gives Djerv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Djerv win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 3.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stord home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Djerv away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Djerv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 19% / 16% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Stord and 3.03 for Djerv, a combined 4.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.0%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–35.9%
- 2–25.8%
- 1–45.3%
Recent form
Stord
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fyllingsdalen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Djerv · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Askøy · 3-3 (D)
Djerv
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gneist · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Djerv win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.