· Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
Stord vs Fana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for Stord and 2.98 for Fana, a combined total of 5.09. That distribution gives Fana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fana win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 2.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stord home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 27% / 17% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.11 goals for Stord and 2.98 for Fana, a combined 5.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.1%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–25.8%
- 1–35.7%
- 2–44.5%
Recent form
Stord
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fyllingsdalen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Djerv · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Askøy · 3-3 (D)
Fana
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fana win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.