· Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Stord vs Gneist Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.08 expected goals for Stord and 1.95 for Gneist, a combined total of 5.04. That distribution gives Stord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stord win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
3.08 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stord home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gneist away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stord to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 16% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.08 goals for Stord and 1.95 for Gneist, a combined 5.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.2%
- 3–26.1%
- 2–16.0%
- 2–25.9%
- 4–14.8%
Recent form
Stord
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fyllingsdalen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Djerv · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Askøy · 3-3 (D)
Gneist
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Djerv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Austevoll · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Varegg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fyllingsdalen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Åsane II · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stord win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.