· Analysis updated 16:45 UTC
Stord vs Vard Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Stord and 2.88 for Vard, a combined total of 4.82. That distribution gives Vard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vard win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 2.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stord home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vard away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 25% / 17% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Stord and 2.88 for Vard, a combined 4.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.5%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–36.2%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–14.5%
Recent form
Stord
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fyllingsdalen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Djerv · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Askøy · 3-3 (D)
Vard
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogndal II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Førde · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vard win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.