· Analysis updated 22:31 UTC
Stourbridge vs Kidderminster Harriers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Stourbridge and 1.18 for Kidderminster Harriers, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Stourbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stourbridge home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Kidderminster Harriers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stourbridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Stourbridge and 1.18 for Kidderminster Harriers, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Stourbridge
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bury Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Worcester City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leighton Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 0-1 (L)
Kidderminster Harriers
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutton Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Boreham Wood · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeovil Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Woking · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gateshead · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · Stourbridge 0-5 Kidderminster Harriers (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-12-09T15:00:00.000Z · Stourbridge 1-4 Kidderminster Harriers (FA Trophy)
- 2015-12-12T15:00:00.000Z · Stourbridge 2-1 Kidderminster Harriers (FA Trophy)
- 2015-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · Stourbridge 3-0 Kidderminster Harriers (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.