· Analysis updated 06:29 UTC
Strømsgodset II vs Tromsø II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Strømsgodset II and 1.67 for Tromsø II, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Strømsgodset II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Strømsgodset II win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Strømsgodset II home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tromsø II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strømsgodset II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for Strømsgodset II and 1.67 for Tromsø II, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Strømsgodset II
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fauske Sprint · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bossekop · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skedsmo · 0-1 (L)
Tromsø II
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrøm II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Fauske Sprint · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kongsvinger II · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjetten · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 56 |
| 2 | Fløya | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | Harstad | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 49 |
| 4 | Alta | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 45 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Kongsvinger II | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 35 |
| 7 | Strømsgodset II | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 33 |
| 8 | Skjetten | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 33 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm II | 25 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 31 |
| 10 | Fauske Sprint | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 31 |
| 11 | Tromsø II | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 27 |
| 12 | Skjervøy | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | -23 | 27 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -43 | 19 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -53 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Strømsgodset II win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.