Strabane Athletic vs Lisburn Distillery Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Strabane Athletic and 1.26 for Lisburn Distillery, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Strabane Athletic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Strabane Athletic win

65.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.54 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Strabane Athletic home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lisburn Distillery away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strabane Athletic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for Strabane Athletic and 1.26 for Lisburn Distillery, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Strabane Athletic win65%

Draw18%

Lisburn Distillery win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.1%
3–17.7%
2–07.2%
1–17.2%
3–06.1%

Recent form

Strabane Athletic

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ards · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundela · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newry City AFC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's University · 0-6 (L)
2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 1-2 (L)

Lisburn Distillery

2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 0-6 (L)
2026-04-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 4-4 (D)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymacash Rangers · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:55.000Z · H vs Knockbreda · 3-3 (D)
2026-04-11T14:00:45.000Z · H vs Dergview · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier Intermediate League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strabane Athletic	25	15	3	7	11	48
2	Dollingstown	26	14	4	8	18	46
3	Moyola Park	25	13	4	8	34	43
4	Rathfriland	22	13	2	7	30	41
5	Newry City AFC	24	12	5	7	8	41
6	Ballymacash Rangers	24	13	1	10	11	40
7	Dergview	23	10	6	7	5	36
8	Ballyclare Comrades	26	11	3	12	-2	36
9	Oxford Sunnyside	25	11	2	12	6	35
10	Portstewart	25	9	7	9	-1	34
11	Knockbreda	25	9	6	10	-6	33
12	Coagh United	26	7	6	13	-19	27
13	Lisburn Distillery	25	7	4	14	-16	25
14	Banbridge Town	23	1	1	21	-79	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Strabane Athletic win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.