Stadion na Zelnickach · Analysis updated 06:14 UTC
Strání vs Kozlovice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Strání and 3.00 for Kozlovice, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Kozlovice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kozlovice win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Strání home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kozlovice away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kozlovice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 25% / 17% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Strání and 3.00 for Kozlovice, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.1%
- 1–36.1%
- 2–26.1%
- 2–36.1%
- 1–44.5%
Recent form
Strání
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Baťov · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Prostejov B · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kroměříž II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Šternberk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SK Krumvir · 5-0 (W)
Kozlovice
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SK Krumvir · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Hluk · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Břeclav · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Holešov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Brumov · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Všechovice | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 30 |
| 2 | Strání | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 28 |
| 3 | Kozlovice | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 4 | Sokol Lanžhot | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 5 | Slavičín | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | SK Krumvir | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 | Prostejov B | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Šternberk | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Holešov | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Hluk | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 11 | Břeclav | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Bzenec | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Kroměříž II | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Brumov | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -21 | 7 |
| 15 | Nové Sady | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -23 | 7 |
| 16 | Baťov | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -39 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kozlovice win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.