Stair Park · Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
Stranraer vs Clyde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Stranraer and 1.25 for Clyde, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Stranraer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stranraer win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stranraer home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Clyde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stranraer to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Stranraer and 1.25 for Clyde, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Stranraer
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Edinburgh City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Kilbride · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbarton · 3-1 (W)
Clyde
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cowdenbeath · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rangers U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stirling Albion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kelty Hearts · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Clyde | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Spartans | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stranraer win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.