Stair Park · Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Stranraer vs Stirling Albion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Stranraer and 0.95 for Stirling Albion, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Stranraer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stranraer win
68.5% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stranraer home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stirling Albion away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Stranraer
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Edinburgh City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Kilbride · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbarton · 3-1 (W)
Stirling Albion
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fraserburgh · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cumbernauld Colts · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Edinburgh City · 3-7 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rangers U21 · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Stranraer 2-2 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Stranraer 1-1 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · Stranraer 1-1 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2025-12-06T15:00:00.000Z · Stranraer 3-2 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Stranraer 0-1 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Stranraer 1-3 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Stranraer 3-0 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2024-12-21T15:00:00.000Z · Stranraer 1-1 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Stranraer 0-2 Stirling Albion (League Two)
- 2024-07-23T18:45:00.000Z · Stranraer 2-2 Stirling Albion (League Cup)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Clyde | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Spartans | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stranraer win, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.