Stade de la Meinau · Analysis updated 07:48 UTC
Strasbourg vs Angers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.58 for Angers, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Strasbourg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Strasbourg win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
2.27 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Strasbourg home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strasbourg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.27 goals for Strasbourg and 1.58 for Angers, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Strasbourg
- 2026-10-17T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 6-2 (W)
Angers
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2025-10-05T15:15:00.000Z · Strasbourg 5-0 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2025-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-2 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2025-02-05T19:45:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-3 Angers (Coupe de France)
- 2024-09-15T15:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2023-02-18T20:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 2-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2023-01-06T17:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 0-0 Angers (Coupe de France)
- 2022-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 3-2 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2022-02-13T14:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-0 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2021-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 0-2 Angers (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Strasbourg win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.