Stade de la Meinau · Referee Eric Wattellier, France · Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Strasbourg vs Monaco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.63 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Monaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Strasbourg home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Monaco away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Strasbourg
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
Monaco
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-1 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 5-4 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2026-02-05T20:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 3-1 Monaco (Coupe de France)
- 2025-08-31T15:15:00.000Z · Strasbourg 2-3 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2025-04-19T17:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 0-0 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2024-11-09T16:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-3 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2024-03-10T14:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 0-1 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2023-08-20T17:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 0-3 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2023-04-02T15:05:00.000Z · Strasbourg 3-4 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2022-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-2 Monaco (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.