Stade de la Meinau · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Strasbourg and 2.17 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Paris Saint Germain win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 2.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Strasbourg home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Paris Saint Germain away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–37.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.60 (model 46.4% vs market 36.6%, edge +9.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.60 | 36.6% | 46.4% | 2.16 | +9.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.12 | 84.3% | 85.1% | 1.18 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 19.1% | 19.4% | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.40 | 65.6% | 65.7% | 1.52 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 80.7% | 80.7% | 1.24 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 6.00 | 15.3% | 15.0% | 6.67 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.70 | 35.0% | 34.4% | 2.91 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 63.4% | 53.6% | 1.87 | -9.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Strasbourg
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
Paris Saint Germain
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-01T19:45:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-2 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2025-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · Strasbourg 3-3 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2025-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 2-1 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2024-10-19T19:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 2-4 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2024-02-02T20:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-2 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2023-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 0-3 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2023-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-1 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2022-12-28T20:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-2 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2022-04-29T19:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 3-3 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2021-08-14T19:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 2-4 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.