Strindheim vs Aalesund II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.97 expected goals for Strindheim and 1.14 for Aalesund II, a combined total of 5.11. That distribution gives Strindheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Strindheim win

85.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.97 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Strindheim home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aalesund II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strindheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 9% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.97 goals for Strindheim and 1.14 for Aalesund II, a combined 5.11 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Strindheim win85%

Draw9%

Aalesund II win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

91%

Double chance X2

15%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals86%

Over 3.5 goals73%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

3–17.2%
4–17.1%
3–06.3%
4–06.3%
5–15.7%

Recent form

Strindheim

2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg II · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nardo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde II · 10-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volda · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Trondheim · 1-0 (W)

Aalesund II

2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Melhus · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NTNUI · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg II · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Orkla · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spjelkavik · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strindheim	25	17	4	4	43	55
2	Volda	25	17	4	4	41	55
3	Melhus	25	12	6	7	26	42
4	Byåsen	24	11	5	8	7	38
5	Molde II	24	10	5	9	-11	35
6	Rosenborg II	24	10	4	10	9	34
7	Nardo	25	10	3	12	13	33
8	Herd	25	9	5	11	-11	32
9	Spjelkavik	25	8	5	12	-11	29
10	NTNUI	25	7	8	10	-16	29
11	Ranheim II	24	7	5	12	-17	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	7	5	12	-21	26
13	Aalesund II	24	7	4	13	-23	25
14	Orkla	25	6	5	14	-29	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Strindheim win, at 85.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.

A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.