Leangen Bolig Arena · Analysis updated 17:39 UTC
Strindheim vs Rosenborg II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.66 expected goals for Strindheim and 0.89 for Rosenborg II, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Strindheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Strindheim win
74.9% probability
Expected goals
2.66 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Strindheim home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rosenborg II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strindheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.66 goals for Strindheim and 0.89 for Rosenborg II, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–09.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.75 (model 45.3% vs market 33.1%, edge +12.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.75 | 33.1% | 45.3% | 2.21 | +12.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.00 | 23.8% | 25.1% | 3.98 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 9.00 | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.90 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.00 | 15.0% | 15.0% | 6.67 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.20 | 75.0% | 74.9% | 1.34 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 90.6% | 89.9% | 1.11 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 85.7% | 85.0% | 1.18 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 66.9% | 54.7% | 1.83 | -12.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Strindheim
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nardo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde II · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volda · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Trondheim · 1-0 (W)
Rosenborg II
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Strindheim · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Melhus · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aalesund II · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spjelkavik · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nardo · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strindheim | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 39 | 52 |
| 2 | Volda | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 52 |
| 3 | Melhus | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 41 |
| 4 | Byåsen | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 5 | Molde II | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 35 |
| 6 | Rosenborg II | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 34 |
| 7 | Nardo | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 33 |
| 8 | Herd | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -7 | 32 |
| 9 | Spjelkavik | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -8 | 29 |
| 10 | NTNUI | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -16 | 28 |
| 11 | Ranheim II | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -17 | 26 |
| 12 | Kvik Trondheim | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -21 | 26 |
| 13 | Aalesund II | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -23 | 25 |
| 14 | Orkla | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Strindheim win, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.